The Red Resurgence
On August 8, Russia invaded neighboring Georgia, and today the Red -- I mean Russian -- Army is within just a few miles of the Georgian capital (Tbilisi, not Atlanta). A lot of people are speculating if this marks a resurgence in Russia's territorial ambitions, namely to gain back control of the old bloc nations who broke away in 1991 when the Soviet Union crumbled.
One of the best articles I've read about this is a piece that Victor Davis Hanson wrote for National Review, in which he talks about how brilliantly timed and executed this invasion was. First and foremost, he says, the world's attention is turned to the Olympics, and China -- who's fervently trying to provide a perfect image of itself to a world that largely views it as repressive -- isn't about to insert itself into the situation.
Second, the world's superpower and sheriff, in addition to being busy with Iraq and Afghanistan, "is preoccupied with a presidential race, in which 'world citizen' Barack Obama has mesmerized Europe as the presumptive new president and soon-to-be disciple of European soft power." Further, instead of unity from America's leaders, they're "all over the map with three reactions from Bush, McCain, and Obama -- all of them mutually contradictory, at least initially."
In addition to the immediate timing benefits of Russia's invasion, Hanson says that this also has huge long-term effects for weak nations in the region, especially the former bloc states who have been trying for years to further ally with the West through the European Union and NATO.
One of the best articles I've read about this is a piece that Victor Davis Hanson wrote for National Review, in which he talks about how brilliantly timed and executed this invasion was. First and foremost, he says, the world's attention is turned to the Olympics, and China -- who's fervently trying to provide a perfect image of itself to a world that largely views it as repressive -- isn't about to insert itself into the situation.
Second, the world's superpower and sheriff, in addition to being busy with Iraq and Afghanistan, "is preoccupied with a presidential race, in which 'world citizen' Barack Obama has mesmerized Europe as the presumptive new president and soon-to-be disciple of European soft power." Further, instead of unity from America's leaders, they're "all over the map with three reactions from Bush, McCain, and Obama -- all of them mutually contradictory, at least initially."
In addition to the immediate timing benefits of Russia's invasion, Hanson says that this also has huge long-term effects for weak nations in the region, especially the former bloc states who have been trying for years to further ally with the West through the European Union and NATO.
The geopolitical message is clear to both the West and the former Soviet Republics: don't consider NATO membership (i.e., do the Georgians really think that, should they have been NATO members, any succor would have been forthcoming?).It's a powerful and direct article, one of the best I've read from Hanson, who always delivers great writings. You can read it here.
Together with the dismal NATO performance in Afghanistan, the Georgian incursion reveals the weakness of the Atlantic Alliance. The tragic irony is unmistakable. NATO was given a gift in not having made Georgia a member, since otherwise an empty ritual of evoking Article V’s promise of mutual assistance in time of war would have effectively destroyed the Potemkin alliance.
posted by Ryan at 8/13/2008
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